Biden Replacement Process: The Rules, Timeline, Contenders, and Polls | ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW
This is what you need to know about replacing Biden
The call to replace Joe Biden rang out like a shot heard round the world in late June after the earliest presidential debate in US history. What are the key factors and how will they affect events to come? We’ll explore this question and many in this article.
Here’s the list of questions we’ll seek to answer.
What caused the tide to turn against Joe Biden recently?
Who would replace Joe Biden if he stepped down?
Who is polling the best?
What power does the DNC or other party officials have to force Biden’s replacement or remove Kamala Harris as successor? How do Democratic delegate voting rules work?
What power do donors have to replace Biden? What rules prohibit them from removing him using their powers of possession?
What is the Next Generation PAC and how will it help Democrats?
Is it possible to transfer the Biden Harris campaign war chest to another candidate? If so, what rules govern the use and re-shifting of campaign funds in the Democratic Party's 2024 race?
At this stage of the race, do regular Democratic Party members have any role in removing Biden or changing the candidate?
What is the timeline for Biden's replacement and the search for a new candidate, given that neither the Democratic Party convention's rules nor any other timetables appear in this list of questions?
What caused the tide to turn against Joe Biden recently?
There have been several recent developments that might have led to a shift in sentiment against President Joe Biden:
Calls for Biden to Step Aside: Some influential Democratic leaders, including U.S. Rep. Joe Morelle, have suggested that President Biden should step aside in the 2024 presidential election. This has led to some tension within the Democratic party.
Biden has assured voters he’s “not going anywhere.” (3)
Debate Performance: Biden’s performance in a recent debate was described as “disastrous” by some observers. He reportedly struggled to complete thoughts, finish sentences, and rebut claims made by former President Donald Trump.
Biden, in an interview with ABC News anchor George Stephanopoulos that aired on primetime television, reaffirmed his commitment to the campaign in the wake of his disastrous debate last week. He characterized his performance as a "bad night" due to fatigue and a "really bad cold."
Mental Fitness Concerns: There have been concerns about Biden’s mental fitness, with some calling for him to undergo a cognitive test. However, Biden has dismissed these concerns and stated that he won’t withdraw from the race.
Lack of Outreach: There have been reports of frustration within the Democratic party due to a perceived lack of outreach from Biden’s team following his debate performance.
Biden Urges Dems to Come Together: In a lengthy letter to Democrats, President Joe Biden on Monday the 8th said it is time for the party to come together so they can have the best chance at beating Donald Trump.
Sources
Biden firmly denounces calls to step aside from fellow Democrats: 'The voters have spoken'
Joe Biden Tells Congressional Democrats He's 'Not Going Anywhere'
Morelle among Democrats who want Biden to step aside from election, reports say
Biden digs in despite lapses, alarming polls, doubts: 6 takeaways from ABC interview
Four days since his disastrous debate, Biden hasn't called top Democrats in Congress
Biden sends letter to Democrats saying it's time to come together
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Who would replace Biden if he stepped down?
Vice President Kamala Harris: As Biden's running mate, she is the most obvious and seamless pick to replace him. However, her mixed record and low approval rating could hurt her chances against former President Donald Trump.
Gavin Newsom: The California governor has continued to support Biden, even dismissing calls for the president to be removed from the Democratic ticket following the presidential debate.
Gretchen Whitmer: The two-term governor of Michigan is an increasingly popular Midwest Democrat who many pundits speculate will run for president in 2028.
J.B. Pritzker: The governor of Illinois has raised his profile in recent years by going after Trump and defending Mr Biden.
Wes Moore: The governor of Maryland found himself in the spotlight in recent months following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore.
Michelle Obama: Former first lady Michelle Obama has repeatedly said she has no interest in entering the presidential race for years. Her name, however, keeps coming up as a potential candidate.
Hillary Clinton: American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013, and as a United States Senator from New York from 2001 to 2009. While there have been rumors and speculation about her potential interest in running for president again, including replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee in 2024, there is no official statement from her indicating a desire to run again.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Son of famous Robert Kennedy and brother to assassinated President John F. Kennedy, he left the Democratic Party to run as an independent. It is highly unlikely that he will step in, but his disapproval could potentially lead to consideration.
Source
Who is polling the best?
Forbes, in a July 2nd article, provided this list of poll results for contenders to replace Joe Biden.
Vice President Kamala Harris (45%) trails Trump (47%) by two points in a CNN/SRRS poll—a smaller deficit compared to Biden’s six-point shortfall behind Trump in the same poll.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (42%), who has starkly pushed against the idea of replacing Biden, according to Politico, is five points behind Trump (47%) in the poll.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom (43%), who has commonly been floated as a Biden replacement despite turning down rumors of a “shadow campaign” for the White House, polls five points behind Trump (48%), according to the poll.
Secretary of Transportation and former 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg (43%) trails Trump (47%) by four points in the CNN/SRRS poll.
At 44%, Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., a former presidential candidate who ran against Biden in 2019, also sits two points behind Trump (46%), albeit in a poll from progressive think tank Data for Progress.
Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (43%) expressed support for Biden after his debate performance and is behind Trump (46%) by three percentage points in a Data for Progress poll.
Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., another familiar face to voters, polls three points behind Trump in the Data for Progress poll, with Klobuchar capturing 43% support compared to Trump’s 46%.
Source
What power does the DNC or other party officials have to force Biden’s replacement or remove Kamala Harris as successor? How do Democratic delegate voting rules work?
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has the power to replace a presidential nominee if they voluntarily choose to step aside after the convention ends. The DNC rules state that delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) does not have specific rules for replacing a candidate at a particular stage of the race.
However, there is no clear power to remove a nominee who won't go quietly. The DNC could replace a nominee if they withdraw, but they cannot force a nominee to step down.
As for Kamala Harris, if she were to replace Biden as the nominee, the DNC could not remove her as the successor unless she voluntarily stepped down.
The Hill reports,
Much of the chatter over Biden’s fate for now is speculation, as the president and his campaign maintain he is committed to running for another term. Still, some Democrats have expressed uncertainty over his electoral chances against Trump in November, while others have called for him to drop out immediately, injecting uncertainty into an already chaotic election cycle.
Here’s what to know about the rules governing a new Democratic presidential pick.
How does the process work?
Typically, the Democratic presidential candidate is officially selected at the Democratic National Convention, but this year’s presidential nominating process is set to look a little different.
Democrats are holding a virtual roll call in response to earlier concerns that the president wouldn’t be able to get his name on the November ballot in Ohio ahead of the state’s filing deadline. In Ohio, Democrats initially needed to submit the name of their candidate to the state 90 days before the election, which is Aug. 7 this year. That’s earlier than when the convention begins: Aug. 19.
It wasn’t the first time this year that Democrats had run into a filing deadline problem. In Alabama, the issue was settled quickly after the state agreed to change its filing deadline, while Washington state accepted a provisional certification.
When Ohio Republican lawmakers initially deadlocked over a legislative solution, Democrats decided to instead hold a virtual roll call. Ohio lawmakers later passed legislation after the party came up with their workaround solution, allowing Democrats to submit their candidate to the state by Sept. 1.
How have the Democratic delegates pledged so far?
The vast majority of delegates have pledged, but are not bound, to choose Biden as their nominee. If more than half of his delegates decide to choose a candidate other than the president, the process would lead to further rounds of voting before a nominee is chosen, according to ABC News.
Mini-Primary: Can Democratic delegates vote for someone other than VP Harris?
According to the network, delegates’ choices would be recognized as “present” if they voted for someone other than Biden. If a delegate doesn’t vote at all, their vote isn’t included in the initial tally. Still, it’s extremely unlikely that delegates would make such a pronounced move like that with Biden in the race.
Are Democratic delegates forced to vote for Kamala Harris?
There are questions about how the process works, even among Democrats, should the president withdraw from the race before the virtual roll call is held. Delegates likely would not have to throw their support behind Vice President Harris, meaning there is the potential for what Rep. James Clyburn (R-S.C.) referred to as a “mini-primary” to play out among them as they weigh other possible candidates.
If Biden chooses to withdraw after the convention, Democratic National Committee (DNC) members could vote on a pick put forth by DNC Chair Jaime Harrison and top party leadership, according to NBC News.
What are the rules for the general election ballot?
In most states, the filing deadline for Democrats to submit their presidential nominee for the general election ballot is not due for at least another few weeks, as most state filing deadlines take place between August and September, according to an analysis of state rules compiled by The Hill. In some states, there is no deadline at all.
New Mexico offers an unexpected curveball because the state technically does not have a state filing deadline. Once the Democratic primary takes place, whoever wins the contest is automatically placed on the November ballot.
Heritage Foundation plans to sue to keep Biden on the Ballot
As was reported yesterday, Republicans are not likely to let Biden walk away so easily.
Getting rid of Biden and replacing him with Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, or anyone else might not be as simple as those who are desperately trying to get rid of the losing Democratic candidate.
The Hill article continues,
Last week, the Heritage Foundation released a report saying they would file suits in Wisconsin, Nevada and Georgia to prevent a change on the general election ballot. However, officials from those states cast doubt on Heritage’s claims, saying that the state deadlines have not yet passed, allowing for a change to be made.
Valencia Richardson, a voting rights counsel at the Campaign Legal Center, dismissed this lawsuit, calling it a “threat that is intended to and would serve to impede voter access and confusion,” adding that the threat was “baseless.”
Potential replacements don’t want to run against Trump
As was reported yesterday,
Harris is polling worse than Biden, says Greg Swenson, a frequent media commentator on markets, economics, and politics.
He also said that Newsom, Whitmer, and others don’t want to go up against Trump because they know they’ll lose. Instead, they want to think ahead to 2028.
Source
What power do donors have to replace Biden? What rules prohibit them from removing him using their powers of possession?
Major Democratic donors are formulating strategies to induce President Joe Biden to relinquish his position as the Democratic nominee and are contemplating the possibility of replacing him. Nevertheless, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and the delegates at the convention possess the authority to replace a presidential nominee, not the donors.
The DNC regulations stipulate that delegates who are elected to the national convention and have pledged their support to a presidential candidate must, in all good conscience, reflect the sentiments of the electorate. This implies that the delegates would have the discretion to select a new nominee in the event that Biden were to withdraw from the race. Nevertheless, the DNC lacks a distinct authority to remove a nominee who refuses to resign.
Additionally, donors are not authorized to eliminate Biden from the ticket. Although they have the ability to withhold donations to the party as a form of pressure, they are unable to directly supplant him as the nominee. In the end, the DNC and the convention delegates would be responsible for the decision to replace Biden.
Donors are prohibited from removing Biden using their powers of possession under the DNC rules and the delegate selection process. These regulations guarantee that the nominee is selected by the convention's delegates, rather than by donors or other external parties.
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What is the Next Generation PAC and how will it help Democrats?
The Next Generation PAC is a political action committee that is dedicated to empowering and supporting young Democratic-leaning electors to participate in elections and ensure that the government is responsive to the most diverse and largest generation in American history. The Next Generation PAC would assist Democrats in the event that Joe Biden were to resign as the Democratic nominee by:
Empowering Young Voters: The PAC would facilitate the registration, mobilization, and education of young voters.
Developing a More Robust Democracy: The PAC would contribute to the development of a government that is inclusive, reflective, and reflective of the most diverse and largest generation in American history by collaborating with young people throughout the nation.
Assisting a Replacement Candidate: In the event that Joe Biden resigns as the Democratic nominee, the PAC intends to raise a maximum of $100 million to support a replacement candidate.
Engaging Young Voters: The PAC would concentrate on the mobilization of young voters in critical states to establish a foundation of power for young voters that will endure for generations, not just for the duration of an election cycle.
Lessons Learned Sharing: The PAC would disseminate the lessons learned to the broader progressive community in order to construct a more robust and efficient democracy.
Securing the White House, Senate, and House: The PAC would collaborate to secure the Senate, turn the House, and win the White House in the 2024 election.
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Is it possible to transfer the Biden Harris campaign war chest to another candidate? If so, what rules govern the use and re-shifting of campaign funds in the Democratic Party's 2024 race?
It is feasible to transfer the Biden-Harris campaign war chest to an alternative candidate.
The following regulations govern the use and re-allocation of campaign funds in the Democratic Party's 2024 election:
Transfer to Another Candidate: In the event that President Joe Biden were to resign and Vice President Kamala Harris did not emerge as the nominee, the former campaign would be limited to transferring $2,000 of the funds it had accumulated to a new candidate.
Conversion to a Political Action Committee (PAC): In the event that both Biden and Harris withdraw from the contest or fail to secure the nomination for their respective parties, they may elect to allocate the campaign funds to either a super PAC or the party.
Utilization of Funds by New Candidate: In the event that Harris were to be selected as the nominee, she could allocate the funds to her own presidential campaign.
Donor Intent: Unless the donor explicitly specifies in writing that the contribution is for the general election, any donations designated for the primary are considered to be for the primary.
Party Regulations: The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has regulations that dictate the manner in which funds may be transmitted in the event of a substitute candidate. As per the DNC's regulations, delegates who are elected to the national convention and have pledged their support to a presidential candidate must, in all good conscience, reflect the sentiments of the electorate.
Source
At this stage of the race, do regular Democratic Party members have any role in removing Biden or changing the candidate?
Regular Democratic Party members do not have a direct role in removing Joe Biden or changing the candidate for the 2024 presidential election.
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) and state party organizations are responsible for overseeing the nomination process and selecting a candidate to represent the party in the general election.
However, regular party members can participate in the nomination process by attending local and state party conventions, voting in primaries or caucuses, and serving as delegates to the national convention. Additionally, party members can voice their opinions and preferences through grassroots activism, social media, and other forms of political engagement.
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My Theory
I suspect that the stirrings to replace Joe Biden will continue without much clear movement forward for a few weeks. This will increase the tension surrounding Biden’s dwindling poll numbers. Once the outcry has reached fever pitch, I suspect some black swan events will occur, providing the Democratic Party with the justification they need to replace Biden.
Please tell us what you think or let us know if we got something wrong.
Much love,
Justin Deschamps is a researcher, omniologist, podcaster, and business consultant who has committed himself to restoring the knowledge, reason, and goodwill that helped the founding fathers create the greatest nation on earth.